Price vs. Politics: Russian gas in the Turkish market

Can Russian molecules continue to prosper in the Turkish gas market amidst fluctuating developments in the European hinterlands?

14 January 2016, 4 - 7:30 PM CET

TUSIAD Avenue des Gaulois 13, Brussels 1040

The topic of this members' meeting of the Brussels Energy Club is, at the present time, one that sells itself. The diplomatic row which has emerged between Russia and Turkey following the shooting down of a Russian military aircraft in the skies above the Turkey-Syria hinterlands last November appears set to become a game changer for the two countries' relations. In terms of the Moscow-Ankara energy partnership, the much-heralded Turkish Stream project is now a non-starter, and while we have not seen any disruption to existing Russian gas supplies (to Turkey), Ankara is set to remain "uncomfortably dependant" on Russian gas.

So what developments can we expect to arise out of the Russia-Turkey energy (namely gas) trade, looking ahead? What are Turkey's options for diversifying away from Russian gas as a primary means of powering its industries and growing economy? Can Turkey's diversification projects be justified in an era of tumbling oil prices? While Qatar and Turkey appear to have intensified dialogue on LNG deliveries, are such deliveries likely given Turkey's shortage of re-gasification infrastructure? How will price continue to govern the Russia-Turkey gas trade, taking into account Gazprom's existing long-term contracts with Turkish consumers and the low oil price environment?

These are just some of the questions that remain "on the table" for us to discuss and debate. And in order to stimulate a boisterous discussion about the future prospects for the Turkey-Russia gas trade, and the implications for European and regional stakeholders, we invited Dr. Volkan Özdemir, Director of the EPPEN Institute in Ankara, to address this BREC members' meeting on January 14. A lively start to the New Year awaits us!

Program:

Welcoming remarks by Dr. Bahadir Kaleagasi, Chairman, Brussels Energy Club
Setting out the debate by Dr. Marat Terterov, Executive Director, Brussels Energy Club
Presentation by Dr. Volkan Özdemir, Director of the Institute of Energy Markets and Policies (EPPEN), Ankara, Turkey
Short presentation by Dr. Terterov of his recent paper on Russia-Turkey-Qatar gas relations in light of the post-November 24 crisis
Roundtable discussion with members and guests of the Brussels Energy Club (NB: the Chatham House Rule will apply).
Supper buffet reception and networking opportunities with the speaker and Club members will follow the interactive discussions