Marat Terterov on Rising Tensions in Iran – Interview for EU Today

Source: Rising Tensions in Iran: Market Volatility, Strategic Risks, and the Limits of Regime Change (EU Today)

Brussels, 24 June 2025 – As tensions escalate following Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the global energy markets have responded with marked volatility.

In an exclusive interview with EU Today, Dr Marat Terterov, Founder and Director of the Brussels Energy Club, outlined the key economic and geopolitical implications of the current crisis and warned against further escalation or any attempt at externally imposed regime change in Iran.

According to Dr Terterov, oil prices spiked by approximately 7% in the immediate aftermath of the strikes—an early signal of market anxiety. Although prices have since moderated, he emphasised that this stabilisation is largely based on “bets on a ceasefire” and a broad assumption that the situation would not worsen.

“Most experts believe Iran lacks the military muscle to sustain an open conflict with the United States or Israel,” he said. While Tehran has voiced outrage over the strikes—carried out during ongoing nuclear negotiations—Dr Terterov cautioned against underestimating the strategic calculus behind Iran’s actions.

The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a central concern. A critical conduit for both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), the strait is vital not only for Gulf producers such as Qatar but also for Iran itself. “This market disruption weapon is really something of last resort,” he said. “Iran needs the Strait to export its own oil. Closing it would damage its own economic interests as much as those of its rivals.”

Dr Terterov also noted that Tehran has previously used tactics such as disabling tankers during the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s, but has largely refrained from such actions in recent decades. While piracy remains a threat in the Indian Ocean, he underscored that a deliberate Iranian blockade would represent a significant escalation.

He further suggested that recent Iranian missile activity was conducted with some restraint. Citing media reports that Qatar and Bahrain had closed their airspace before an Iranian strike on a US military base in Qatar, Dr Terterov argued that this implied a level of forewarning and coordination. “This suggests an effort to minimise damage and political fallout,” he said. “There’s some element of rationality, if not control, in how these strikes have been executed.”

Turning to the wider geopolitical implications, Dr Terterov warned strongly against external attempts at regime change. “We’ve seen what happened in Iraq in 2003, in Libya, and more recently in Syria,” he said. “All of these examples would pale in comparison to the consequences of a state collapse in Iran.”

With a population close to 100 million, significant military assets, and a complex ethnic landscape—including large Azeri and Baloch minorities—Dr Tertarov argued that a power vacuum in Iran would have “catastrophic” regional consequences. “There would be major spillover effects, including sectarian violence and refugee flows,” he said, referencing the Syrian refugee crisis of 2015 and its political aftershocks in Europe.

“Europe cannot afford another destabilising refugee wave. We must work towards mediation,” he added. He also expressed scepticism over longstanding claims that Iran is imminently developing nuclear weapons. “We’ve been hearing that for over 20 years. There is certainly room for dialogue.”

On the subject of US foreign policy under President Donald Trump, Dr Terterov acknowledged the unpredictability of White House messaging but argued that there is likely a deeper strategy at play. “I don’t believe everything is spontaneous,” he said. “There are still institutions, security agencies, and strategic thinkers influencing policy.”

He added that the US-Israel alliance remains strong and that the pattern of American military engagement abroad has remained largely consistent since the Cold War. “If anything, what we are witnessing now is a continuation—if more assertively—from previous interventions in places like Sudan, Somalia, and Iraq.”

Concluding the interview, Dr Terterov warned that while recent developments have not yet triggered a wider regional war, the possibility remains if external powers pursue a policy of enforced regime change. “That would be a major mistake,” he said. “Let us hope it does not happen.”