Libyan gas supply – a missed opportunity for Europe in the wake of the phase of our Russian gas?

The EU seems to be once again missing the bus when it comes to its eternal quest for diversification of Europe’s sources of gas supply. This is the view of Dr Marat Terterov, following his participation in the high-level Libya Africa International Gas Forum, hosted by IN-VR, the Libyan Ministry of Oil and Gas and the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) on 6-7 December 2025 in Tripoli.

Following his meetings with multiple energy experts and decision makers during the Forum, including Dr Khalifa Abdulsadek, Libya’s eloquent Minister of Oil and Gas, Dr Terterov released the following comments for stakeholders:

- The main takeaway from this conference and exchange of views so far is that Libya has excellent potential to deliver much more gas to Europe than it currently does. Libya appears to be stable enough and the government has a strategy in place to take the gas sector to new levels.

Terterov continued:

- Taking into account Brussels’ current plans to ban Russian gas by 2027, it should be a no-brainer for our friends at DG Energy to commence a serious dialogue with Libya. There is plenty of gas being discovered in the region, and some solid infrastructure is already in place connecting African gas molecules with Europe. The Green Stream gas pipeline is only working to 20% of its 11bcm/a capacity. Sadly, apart from me, no one appears to be here from Brussels. The European Commission does not appear to see Libyan gas as a priority.

Further noting that:

- All indications are that Libya is likely to increase its gas production in the years ahead and sees the EU as an attractive market for gas exports. Expect more gas to be consumed in Libya domestically looking forward, as I see a semblance of natural gas leading some level of re-industrialisation or fulfilling public policy objectives. However, there will be plenty of gas available for export, and at the moment, Libya is a missed opportunity. It is time for Brussels to peek into the window.

Dr Terterov’s remarks were echoed in more detail at the expert level by Philip Vorobyov, Director, Consulting Global Gas and LNG at S&P Global Energy, who delivered the following conclusions to the Forum during his presentation in Tripoli:

• Libya is “hot again” in the upstream world.

• The country aims to lift marketed gas from 2.7 Bcf/d to 4 Bcf/d

• There is significant spare capacity in the Greenstream pipeline to Italy.

• A & E offshore fields production start in 2027–28 and reach 0.7-0.8 bcfd plateau to offset declines at Wafa and Bahr Essalam fields.

• Strong IOC interest: 37 companies participated in the recent licensing round, with MoUs signed with Shell, Exxon, and bp.

• Libya holds ~80 Tcf of gas volumes, of which 10Tcf has a break-even cost of below $1.5/mcf

• Fiscal terms have improved significantly, making Libya competitive again for exploration capital.

• In the long term, Libya could contribute significantly to Europe’s gas supply, particularly in the 2030s, as new volumes come online.

S&P Global Energy was the key knowledge partner for the Forum and supports Libya in the country’s current efforts to expand oil and gas production in a sustainable and ecologically friendly manner.